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A Rose by Any Other Name: Can Corporate Descriptions Predict the Market’s Performance?
Somewhere along the way you, the IRO or IR counselor, will get a
question
from a senior executive at your company or client about what you
think the
stock market will do. Of course, you can always regurgitate
what you
read that morning in The Wall Street Journal or you can
bluff your
way through by talking about the Elliott Wave Theory or some such
thing; however,
let’s take a look at some other ways of predicting the
market.
While some subscribe to various technical theories others follow
less “scientific”
approaches. For example, the “Super Bowl rule” is
the market’s
tendency to rise in years when a National Football Conference team
wins the
big game and fall when an American Football Conference team is
champ. The “hemline
theory” is the idea that stock prices tend to move in the
same direction
as hemlines on dresses. Thus, when the fashion industry shortens
skirts, the
market is supposed to go up; when hemlines fall, so too do stock
prices.
This one ranks as one of my favorites and, judging from some
personal research
(which involved polling the distaff members of my firm), it appears
that the
market is in for a mixed performance as there doesn’t appear
to by any real
consensus. However, how investors refer to companies or
industries can
be somewhat indicative of where things may be headed as terminology
tends to
shift during bull and bear markets.
Herewith a few examples:
|
Bull Market |
Bear Market |
|
Developmental stage enterprise |
Dog |
|
Designer of upscale apparel |
Rag goods company |
|
Specialty retailer |
Stores |
|
Specialty chemical producer |
Environmental hazard |
|
Property and casualty insurer |
Hurricane victim |
|
Luxury home builder |
Victim of mortgage banking crisis |
|
Provider of waste management services |
Garbage company |
|
Category killer |
Highly competitive, low margin business |
|
First mover advantage |
Nobody else cares about this segment |
|
Biopharma company |
Money pit |
|
Markets performance casual footwear |
Fad |
|
Diversified financial services company |
Ward of the government |
|
Specialty beverages |
Commodity company |
To conclude, one of the best theories for investing is a simple
one espoused
by the legendary investor Peter Lynch. Rather than predicting
the market’s
performance, he believes that the key to successful investing is to
buy great
companies. Who can argue with that…
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student journalism beiler midday new york times newsroom
May 18th,
2010
Sleepy Students, Eye-Opening Videos
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Who knew that 8:30 p.m. could ever qualify as the middle of the day? Well, at the Student Journalism Institute, all 24 of us are learning this lesson well and fast. Our midday session, the last one before the ceremonial opening of the newsroom, was all about video. Jeremy Beiler, video journalist of The New York Times, talked about integrating video and written words.
“A video is not a repeat,†Beiler said. “It’s an expansion or addition to the print story.â€
The lights were out during the previous presentation and someone had the terrible idea of leaving them off during the video presentation. Since yawning is contagious, I had to stop looking at my colleagues so I wouldn’t pass out during a session I had to blog about later. Luckily, the video we watched was stimulating and was about one of my favorite subjects — food.
Howard University senior Tahirah Hariston takes notes duirng a panel at the New York Times Student Journalism Institute. (Imani M. Cheers/NYT Institute)
Some of my professors at NYU are pretty serious about limiting videos to two minutes, but Beiler says “videos can be as long as they need to be.†The piece he showed us is five minutes and two seconds long. And somehow, in spite of an air-conditioner on overdrive, it held my interest the entire time.
Our eyes burned after the lights finally came on, but everyone pretended to be chipper. Luckily, our efforts were not in vain because this session was useful; Beiler gave us three vital steps to remember in producing video:
- Find out who your characters are and what the story is about. Also, make sure you can find a way to shoot them in their element as well as any events they are attending that relate to the story.
- Go out and shoot the story and get as much footage as possible.
- Do a paper edit first, and then do the actual editing of the footage.
He told us that anyone considering working with video for the next two weeks would first be taken through a short course. The invitation was met with sighs of relief and a flood of confessions about how little video editing we had actually done.
My confession: The editing program Avid is my sworn enemy. It deletes my work when I take a bathroom break after working on a video piece for hours. This week I will defeat it.
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proovedores de internet pirata
Partido Pirata ofrece Internet
Como mencionamos antes, existe un super lobby que la OXCOM (regulador de comunicaciones del Reino Unido) busca implementar:
Proovedores de Internet obligados a informar de los usuarios que “atentan†contra el copyright.
SÃ, formar una lista negra y que el mismo que te ofrece alta velocidad para descargar contenidos, te termine acusando ante las empresas discográficas o diversas “productoras” que luego te llevarÃan a juicio. De esta manera se iniciarÃa una super lista negra en donde estarÃan nuestros nombres, qué bajamos, que compartimos y cuantas veces lo hacemos, y peor si te gusta el porno freak.
Entonces ante la pregunta sobre quién podrÃa defendernos ante situaciones como estas, anteriormente surgió (en otro pais, desarrollado y de primer mundo claro) El Partido Pirata, más organizado que nunca. Pero la iniciativa para combatir esta “solución copyright” en realidad es del Partido Pirata Sueco, qué , como es necesario y previendo las jugarretas como la de OXAM, se organizó como una forma estructurada de la defensa de los derechos digitales a un nivel claramente polÃtico. Si bien vino a luchar por nuestros derechos, ahora su lucha se concreta con una acción concreta fantástica: Ellos proveerán de Internet a la gente, compitiendo con las empresas regulares. Sera el Pirate ISP y ofrece ciertos beneficios:
- Ofrecerán anonimato completo .
- Ningún tercero tendra algún dato de los usuarios.
- Claro, alta velocidad.
Me quedo con el siguiente párrafo del Alt1040:
Señoras y señores, por si alguno no se habÃa dado cuenta todavÃa, estamos ante un movimiento muy importante, el primer IPS del mundo que le dará la espalda a los capos de la industria y luchará a capa y espada por los ciudadanos y sus derechos está a punto de nacer. Ahora solamente nos queda esperar a que Pirata ISP empiece a funcionar para ver como va todo ya que fácil no va a ser, los tortazos legales no tardarán en llegar de todos los frentes. En cualquier caso y pase lo que pase, chapó por el Partido Pirata Sueco
Esperemos que estas iniciativas no se detengan y empezemos a reflexionar sobre la necesidad actual de en nuestro paÃs sobre contar con un frente polÃtico para la que los derechos digitales sean tema de agenda.
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